GDP of Lithuania grew by 5% over three quarters of 2008

Statistics Lithuania informs that based on available statistical data and econometric models, GDP in III quarter 2008 totalled LTL 30 290.6 million at current prices and, as compared to III quarter 2007, grew by 3.1%. The results of III quarter 2008 were conditioned by the slowdown in the growth rates of production and consumption of goods, while the increase in the gross value added – by the growth in the value added generated by agricultural and service enterprises.

Over three quarters of 2008, GDP reached LTL 83 355.9 million at current prices and, compared to three quarters of 2007, increased by 5%. In general, in 2008, not a single economic activity could be distinguished as the one making the decisive impact on the growth in the gross value added in the country – the increase in the value added generated over three quarters 2008 was close to the national average in all economic activities.

Changes in GDP. Compared to the respective period of the previous year

^* First GDP estimate.

Over three quarters of 2008, GDP per capita made LTL 24 797.8 (in III quarter – LTL 9021).

In III quarter 2008, compared to II quarter 2008, seasonally and working day adjusted, GDP increased by 0.4%, while compared to III quarter 2007 – by 2.8%.

Changes in GDP

GDP at current prices

Lithuanian economy slows on weakening domestic demand

Lithuania”s economy expanded in the third quarter of 2008 at the slowest pace in nine years as domestic demand weakened after bank lending froze. Annual growth eased to a preliminary 3.1% from 5.2% in the previous quarter, the Statistical Department of Lithuania said in an e-mailed statement today.

The median estimate of five economists in Bloomberg survey was 3%. An economic boom sparked by entry into the European Union in 2004 ended after accelerating inflation curbed consumer buying power. Credit growth, real estate prices and domestic spending, key drivers of the expansion, are slowing. Increasing risk of a global recession also threatens to curb growth as demand wanes in export markets, reports ELTA.

“The forecasted slowdown has come,”” said Rimantas Ruckis, chief economist at Vilnius DnB Nord Bankas. “Domestic demand had been driven by strong credit growth and it didn”t correspond to reality,” added Ruckis.

Growth in the third quarter was driven by a good harvest and rising output at oil refinery Mazeikiu Nafta, the country”s biggest company, economists said. The outlook for exports is “worrying”” and a potential drop in consumption further raises the risk of a recession next year, according to analysts. “In reality, the outlook is even weaker, as the recovery of the oil refining capacity raises the growth figures of manufacturing output artificially,”” said Anssi Rantala, a senior analyst with Helsinki-based Nordea Markets. Growth averaged 5% through the first nine months this year, the Statistical Department said. The central bank estimates that growth may average 4.2% this year before slowing to 1.2% in 2009. “The slowing of the economy is occurring more suddenly, and will be deeper than expected,”” the Bank of Lithuania stated on October 23. “This is fundamentally based on worsening expectations by people and businesses about economic developments amid the global financial crisis.”” Lithuania”s economy continued to grow in the third quarter while its Baltic neighbors, Latvia and Estonia, slipped into recession in the second quarter. Domestic consumption is likely to weaken further in coming quarter as inflation, which accelerated to 11% in September, cuts consumers” buying power, the central bank said. Retail sales fell 3.3% in August, suggesting that consumption is weakening on tumbling consumer confidence. The rate compares with 27.1% growth in February.

Scandlines stellt Fährlinie zwischen Jütland und Litauen ein

Rostock (ddp) Die Reederei Scandlines stellt ihre Fährverbindung zwischen Jütland in Dänemark und Litauen bis spätestens Mitte Dezember ein. Ein Unternehmenssprecher begründete die Entscheidung heute in Rostock unter anderem mit dem rückläufigen Ladungsaufkommen. Zudem würden sinkende Marktpreise, drastische Kostensteigerungen und die Finanzkrise die Entwicklung der Route Arhus-Aabenraa-Klaipeda derart stark beeinflussen, dass langfristig keine Verbesserungen auf dieser Linie zu erwarten seien, sagte er. Die Fähre auf dieser Strecke soll später auf anderen Verbindungen zum Einsatz kommen.

Lithuanian centre right claims win

Lithuania’s main centre-right opposition party claimed victory in a parliamentary election, but faced tough talks to form a majority coalition as the former Soviet state heads for a sharp economic slowdown.

The vote in Lithuania, a European Union and NATO member since 2004, took place amid anger over double digit inflation and fears the global credit crunch and financial crisis could hit growth and jobs.

With votes counted in 1,739 districts out of 1,910 in the second round vote, the centre-right Homeland Union won a further 27 seats to add to 18 won in the first round two weeks ago.

This would give it 45 seats, well short of a majority in the 141-seat parliament and leading to the need for coalition talks.

Homeland Union leader Andrius Kubilius said the voting showed his party had won the vote and that it would lead talks on forming the new government.

“I see a very good chance to form a working government for the cause of change,” Kubilius told reporters.

Kubilius, prime minister in 1999-2000, was expected to woo two smaller centre-right groups – the opposition Liberal Movement and the Liberal and Centre Union, a member of the outgoing coalition.

Economic slowdown

Another potential partner is the National Resurrection Party, led by a popular television talent show host, which came a surprise second after the first round.

Kubilius told reporters his party wanted the posts of finance minister, economy, defence and foreign affairs, with the rest being shared by coalition partners.

Kubilius is set to become prime minister as Lithuania’s economic growth is trailing off sharply and its public finances are worsening, both problems if the country wants to achieve its stated goal of adopting the euro in 2011.

Kubilius has said he would soften the blow of the slowdown by reducing personal income tax, at the same time closing other tax loopholes so budget revenues do not suffer too much.

He has said he would let the budget deficit rise, but keep it below the limit set by the European Union of 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Relations with Moscow could become cooler as the centre-right has reacted most sharply to what it sees as a newly aggressive Russia after the conflict with Georgia.

But the new government faces likely growing dependence on Russian energy resources after a planned shutdown of the Soviet-era Ignalina nuclear power plant at the end of 2009.

Current ruling party, the centre-left Social Democrats, were set to win a further 13 seats, bringing their tally to 23, a defeat for Prime Minister Gediminas Kirkilas.

President Valdas Adamkus has said he planned to start talks on the new government early next week.

 

Photo: Rolandas Paksas (R) of the political party Order and Justice’s and Europe’s only leader to be impeached and removed from office casts his votes during elections in Lithuania (Reuters)” title=”Rolandas Paksas (R) of the political party Order and Justice’s and Europe’s only leader to be impeached and removed from office casts his votes during elections in Lithuania (Reuters)

 

Source: Reuters

Ex-Premier Kubilius kehrt zurück

Vilnius – Litauen steht vor einem Machtwechsel Nach dem Sieg der konservativen Vaterlandsunion bei den Parlamentswahlen am Sonntag kündigte deren Vorsitzender Andrius Kubilius in der Hauptstadt Vilnius an, eine neue Regierung bilden zu wollen.

Der 51-Jährige war bereits zwischen November 1999 und Oktober 2000 Ministerpräsident des grössten baltischen Staates. Zuletzt hatte der Sozialdemokrat Gediminas Kirkilas dieses Amt inne. “Litauen hat sich für Änderungen entschieden, die ihm von einer Mitte-Rechts-Koalition gebracht werden”, sagte Kubilius.

Nach dem vorläufigen Endergebnis kam seine aus Konservativen und Christdemokraten bestehende Vaterlandsunion auf 44 Parlamentssitze. Damit stellt sie künftig die grösste Fraktion.

Der neuen Vier-Parteien-Koalition gehören voraussichtlich auch die rechtskonservative “Partei der Nationalen Wiedergeburt” (16 Sitze), die “Liberale Bewegung” (11 Sitze) und die Fraktion der “Liberalen und Zentrumsunion” (8 Sitze) an. 79 der insgesamt 141 Mandate entfallen insgesamt auf das Mitte-Rechts-Lager.

Als grösste Oppositionsfraktion ziehen die Sozialdemokraten mit 26 Sitzen ins Parlament ein. Die Partei “Ordnung und Gerechtigkeit” des früheren litauischen Präsidenten Rolandas Paksas kam auf 15, die Arbeitspartei auf 10 Mandate. Die übrigen Sitze teilen sich mehrere Kleinparteien und unabhängige Kandidaten.
Ein Erfolg von Kubilius’ Mitte-Rechts-Bündnis hatte sich schon nach dem ersten Wahlgang vor zwei Wochen abgezeichnet. Noch vor der Bekanntgabe des offiziellen Endergebnisses bekräftigten die vier Parteichefs am Morgen ihren Willen zur Regierungsbildung. Die Aufteilung der Ministerien sei unter den Parteien jedoch noch umstritten, hiess es.

 

Bild: Ex-Premier Kubilius kehrt zurück

Märchenhafte Reise ins Baltikum

Billerbeck. Das Münsterlandfestival „pART4“ entführt die Menschen ins Baltikum – eine Gegend geprägt von Mythen und Sagen, Märchen und Legenden. Einige davon wurden an der Freilichtbühne von den jungen Schauspieltalenten Niklas Bose (Billerbeck), Johanna Fliß (Darfeld), Louisa Melzow (Billerbeck) und Lukas Pöhlker (Osterwick) einem bunt gemischten Publikum zum Besten gegeben. „Der Schatz des Baltikum“ nennt sich Europas größte Sammlung an Erzählungen und Märchen der baltischen Sagenwelt, aus denen die vier sich ihre Lieblingsstücke ausgesucht hatten.

Was fasziniert diese vier jungen Menschen gerade an Märchen? „Meine Freunde haben erst gelacht, als sie von dem Projekt erfahren haben. Aber es macht mir so viel Spaß“, sagt Louisa (12). Auch Niklas (12) ist begeistert von dieser Art der Literatur. „Diese Märchen ähneln sehr unseren Grimms Märchen, sind aber nicht so langweilig. Es ist mal was anderes und sehr interessant.“ Die Freude am Lesen und an fremden Kulturen, die die vier das Publikum spüren ließen zeigte, dass Ralf Melzow, Leiter des transittheaters Münster, bei der Besetzung der „Märchenrunde“ ins Schwarze getroffen hatte. „Vier unterschiedliche Persönlichkeiten kommen auf dieser Bühne zusammen und geben den Märchen die notwendige Dynamik“, so Melzow. Mit verteilten Rollen trugen Niklas, Johanna, Louisa und Lukas die Märchen vor. Mit „Der Wolf und die Ricke“ oder „Die Alte kommt“ führte die Reise nach Lettland bevor es mit „Der Fuchs und der Wolf“ und Geigenklängen aus Louisas „Fidel“ weiter ging ins benachbarte Litauen und in Estland ihr Ende fand.

 

Bild: Trugen die Märchen vor: (v.l.) Lukas Pöhlker, Johanna Fliß, Louisa Melzow und Niklas Bose

 

(c) AZ

Kommentar: Haftung für die Lobby

Die größte Finanzmarkt- krise seit dem Zweiten Weltkrieg sorgt für Angst, Panik und Irritationen. Der Ruf nach Konsequenzen wird immer lauter. Im Mittelpunkt steht dabei die Forderung,  verantwortungslosen Finanzgeschäften schamloser Manager einen Riegel vorzuschieben, indem diesen eine Haftung mit ihrem Privatvermögen auferlegt wird. Ein solcher Vorschlag ist Wind auf die Mühlen verärgerter Bürger und macht sich in diesen Tagen gut. Doch hilft er uns wirklich weiter? Es bleibt die Frage: Populismus oder berechtigte Forderung?

Fakt ist: Es gibt bereits eine Haftung von Vorstandsmitgliedern, und zwar in § 93 Absatz 2 des Aktiengesetzes. Dabei handelt es sich jedoch um eine reine Innenhaftung, die nur der Gesellschaft die Möglichkeit einräumt, Vorstandsmitglieder wegen Pflichtverletzungen in Anspruch zu nehmen. Eine Außenhaftung gegenüber Dritten, also Anlegern, ist dagegen nicht vorgesehen. Fakt ist aber auch, dass im Jahre 2004 der damalige Bundesfinanzminister Eichel (SPD) einen Gesetzentwurf vorgelegt hat, der eine solche Außenhaftung vorsah. Das Vorhaben scheiterte am Widerstand von Union und FDP und damit am Lobbyistentum der Wirtschaftsverbände. Nun da das Kind in den Brunnen gefallen ist, stellen sich die Frage erneut: Ist eine Außenhaftung sinnvoll und ist sie auch gerecht?

Sinn und Zweck der Einführung einer Außenhaftung erhellen sich leicht. Wer am Ende mit seinem Privatvermögen gerade stehen muss, wird es sich dreimal überlegen, ob er ein risikoreiches Finanzgeschäft ohne hinreichende sachliche Legitimation eingeht. Das mag vordergründig gesehen eine gewisse Lähmung der Finanzmärkte bedeuten, bringt andererseits aber nur etwas Selbstverständliches zum Ausdruck: Wer mit fremder Leute Geld umgeht, sollte stets genau wissen, was er tut. Weiß er es nicht, muss er die Konsequenzen tragen. Und deshalb ist es auch konsequent, dass Manager ihre Schadensersatzverpflichtung nicht auf Versicherungen sollen abwälzen können – genau dies sah daher richtigerweise auch der Gesetzentwurf aus 2004 vor.

Bliebe noch die Frage nach der Gerechtigkeit. Schließlich neigt man in der allgegenwärtigen Frustration zu Überreaktionen und fordert Konsequenzen ein, die über das Ziel hinausgehen. Doch auch hier liegen die Dinge geradezu erfrischend einfach. Manager rechtfertigen ihr hohes Salär in der Regel auch mit der Verantwortung, die ihre Tätigkeit mit sich bringt. Das kann man tun. Dann aber muss man auch so konsequent sein und die Kehrseite der Medaille betrachten: Wer sich der Verantwortung rühmt, muss sich dieser auch stellen.

Im Übrigen ist dies eine Forderung, die man unter umgekehrten Vorzeichen auch auf eine ganze andere Berufssparte anwenden sollte, nämlich die der Ärzte. Ärzte wissen, was es heißt, Verantwortung zu übernehmen. Sie kennen die Risiken, die die Übernahme von Verantwortung mit sich bringt, ohne dafür im Regelfall eine angemessene finanzielle Abgeltung zu erhalten. Anders als (bislang noch) die Wirtschaftsmanager – aber die haben das, was Ärzten fehlt: Eine starke Lobby!

Verfasst von Patrick

Bush announces visa waiver for 7 countries

President Bush, trying to eliminate a major source of contention with allied nations, has announced the United States is rescinding visa requirements for citizens of six European countries and South Korea.

Bush said Friday that Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and South Korea will be added to the U.S. visa waiver program in about a month. All of the nations allow U.S. citizens to visit without obtaining a visa. He said other countries also are on the path toward getting visa-free treatment.

The United States requires that the countries issue tamper-proof biometric passports that are difficult to forge.

Governments of Baltic states inert in fight against crisis

Government of Baltic states haven’t done enough to avoid the crisis, Bengt Dennis, former president of Swedish central bank said, aripaev.ee mediates Swedish business daily Dagens Industri.

The party is over and guests on their way home. Years of zero-growth are ahead.

“Baltics have driven off the road,” said Dennis, who predicted loan losses will be bigger for Swedish banks.

Dennis painted a gloomy picture of Baltic states in business seminar in Stockholm.

“It has been a success story, but now they’ve driven off the road,”  Dennis said.

Accoridng to him IMF’s prognosis, which predicts zero-growth for Baltics, is too optimistic. Signs of difficulties is large current account deficit, high inflation and labour costs.

“Governments haven’t reacted to correct imbalance in the economy. I believe next year’s GDP is falling in Estonia, Latvia and even in Lithuania,” Dennis said.

“Situation in Baltic countries is very difficult. The crisis showed that government wasn’t ready to act and secondly these are still poor countries. It will be especially hard for workless, sick and retired people,” Dennis said.

Political situation also helped to deepen the situation – weak coalition. Politicians didn’t want to make necessary, but unpleasant decisions to keep success. And necessary decisions will be harder since political insecurity is growing.

“That is seen now. On Sunday three populist parties will get 37 pct of the votes in Lithuania,” he added.
Dennis is convinced that Baltic crisis will hit Swedish banks Swedbank and SEB strongly.

“I suggest them to overlook their credit losses, so far estimates have been very moderate,” Dennis commented.

 

by Marge Tubalkain-Trell
marge.tubalkain-trellatchararipaev.ee

Opinion: Georgia is a danger to today’s Russia

Georgia presents a grave threat to the ruling class in Russia. They fear Georgia and are determined to undermine its growing success.

Russia has many deep problems that are not being addressed. The streets of Moscow and Saint Petersburg are filled with glitzy businesses and flashy automobiles. However, most of Russia is an impoverished country with crumbling infrastructure and a declining population.

Rampant inflation, corruption and a hostile business environment are stifling economic growth in the vast expanses of Russia outside Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Russia’s gross domestic production has grown more slowly than Georgia, and about the same rate as Ukraine. This is staggering when one considers the massive oil profits Russia has that its neighbors do not.

Small businesses find it almost impossible to operate. In advanced economies like the United States, businesses with fewer than fifteen employees account for half of the gross domestic product. Recent opinion surveys by the Levada Center in Moscow show that more than 70% of young people in Russia would prefer to be a state bureaucrat than an entrepreneur.

Former KGB agents, oligarchs and corrupt government officials are good at seizing assets of political enemies or businesses they covet. However, they are not very good at running competitive companies that spread wealth to the vast majority of Russians who have none.

The KGB alumni and oligarchs in Russia use nationalism to mask their inability to improve the standard of living for most Russians. They stoke a nationalistic fervor by editing text books, inventing “Western conspiracies,” and portraying Russia as a grand victim. They can’t improve most Russians’ quality of life, but they can make Russians feel proud of their “strong” leaders.

Putin’s Russia is good at killing journalists, poisoning political enemies and growing corruption. The lack of political debate and freedom of the press gives Russians few alternatives to ponder.

The new Georgia threatens those falsehoods. Georgia is fast becoming an example Russia’s leaders fear. That’s why Russia is doing all it can to stifle Georgia’s growth away from the old Soviet mentality.

In a recent trip to Ukraine, many young professionals I met in Kiev could not imagine driving a few kilometers without being stopped by police panhandling for bribes. They said Ukraine would never change. They were amazed when I told them about Georgia, where policemen are helpful and not corrupt. It opened their eyes to what their country can someday achieve as well.

Countries like Russia and Belarus are moving back towards their authoritarian roots. They are relying on a series of falsehoods to take them there. The Checkists fear a former Soviet Republic making progress against the problems they thrive upon.

Georgia’s free press and open debate contrasts sharply with the political system evolving behind closed doors in the Kremlin. Georgia’s refusal to gloss over the atrocities of the NKVD and KGB threatens the Checkists of today. Georgia’s progress towards better roads and police underscores Russia’s inability to do the same. Georgia’s success at creating a growing tourism industry and culture of small businesses highlights the lack of progress in Russia.

Georgians often ask themselves why their mighty neighbor to the North sees their tiny country as a threat. Georgia may be small, but it has the potential to set big examples and spread big ideas that would overwhelm those ruling Russia today.

 

Thomas Blue

is a corporate and investment banker in the United States. He is married to a Ukrainian journalist and travels frequently in Eastern Europe. You may contact him at ThomasBlue@aol.com.